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Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.
Reliability Testing of the Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) Method
Background: The Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) is a questionnaire designed to be economical and straightforward to administer so that it can be used by local governments interested in measuring the amount and purposes of walking and cycling in their communities. In addition, it captures key sociodemographic characteristics of those participating in these activities. Methods: In 2009 and 2010 results from the 4-page mail-out/mail-back PABS were tested for reliability across 2 administrations (test-retest reliability). Two versions—early and refined—were tested separately with 2 independent groups of university students from 4 universities (N = 100 in group 1; N = 87 in group 2). Administrations were 7 to 9 days apart. Results: Almost all survey questions achieved adequate to excellent reliability. Conclusions: Transportation surveys have not typically been tested for reliability making the PABS questionnaire an important new option for improving information collection about travel behavior, particularly walking and cycling.
Simple, Inexpensive Approach to Sampling for Pedestrian and Bicycle Surveys
Many transportation planners undertake local surveys for a better understanding of the levels of walking and cycling of residents in their city or town. This paper explores the challenges of designing a robust sampling strategy for such surveys. A review of existing surveys on nonmotorized transportation demonstrated that many existing surveys used less than ideal sampling approaches for communities that were aiming to collect populationwide data on cycling and walking and thereby jeopardized the strength of their conclusions. Either surveys used approaches that were too expensive and complex for most communities to implement or surveys generated data that were not applicable to all residents in a community (i.e., data that were not generalizable to the full population). In response to that sampling problem, this paper presents a new method for collecting generalizable data: the sampling method developed in the Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) project. PABS offers a rigorous, yet inexpensive, simple, and well-documented method to conduct surveys. The PABS mail-out-mail-back survey and probabilistic (generalizable) sampling approach can be performed in-house within municipal agencies. With the use of PABS, transportation professionals can obtain higher-quality data about their community as a whole than they would obtain with many of the other existing approaches. PABS is thus a useful complement to other sampling approaches such as intercept surveys (an important way to collect data on the use of specific facilities) or surveys distributed to e-mail lists (a cheap and useful way to collect qualitative data).
Environmental Equity and Health: Understanding Complexity and Moving Forward
The authors invoke a population health perspective to assess the distribution of environmental hazards according to race/ethnicity, social class, age, gender, and sexuality and the implications of these hazards for health. The unequal burden of environmental hazards borne by African American, Native American, Latino, and Asian American/Pacific Islander communities and their relationship to well-documented racial/ethnic disparities in health have not been critically examined across all population groups, regions of the United States, and ages. The determinants of existing environmental inequities also require critical research attention. To ensure inclusiveness and fill important gaps, scientific evidence is needed on the health effects of the built environment as well as the natural environment, cities and suburbs as well as rural areas, and indoor as well as outdoor pollutants.
Simulating Regional-Scale Ozone Climatology over the Eastern United States: Model Evaluation Results
To study the potential impacts of climate change on air quality and public health over the eastern United States, a coupled global/regional-scale modeling system consisting of the NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere–Ocean model, the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for air quality has been developed. Evaluation results of the modeling system used to simulate climate and ozone air quality over the eastern United States during the five summers of 1993–1997 are presented in this paper. The results indicate that MM5 and CMAQ capture interannual and synoptic-scale variability present in surface temperature and ozone observations in the current climate, while the magnitude of fluctuations on shorter time scales is underestimated. A comparison of observed and predicted spatial patterns of daily maximum ozone concentrations shows best performance in predicting patterns for average and above-average ozone concentrations. The frequency distributions of the duration of extreme heat and ozone events show similar features for both model predictions and observations. Finally, application of a synoptic map-typing procedure reveals that the MM5/CMAQ system succeeded in simulating the average ozone concentrations associated with several frequent pressure patterns, indicating that the effects of synoptic-scale meteorology on ozone concentrations are captured by the modeling system. It is concluded that the GCM/MM5/CMAQ system is a suitable tool for the simulation of summertime surface temperature and ozone air quality conditions over the eastern United States in the present climate.
Simulated Effects of Climate Change on Summertime Nitrogen Deposition in the Eastern US
It is anticipated that climate change may impact regional-scale air quality and atmospheric deposition in the coming decades. To simulate the effects of climate change on nitrogen (N) deposition across numerous watersheds in the eastern US, we applied the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS-GCM), Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Keeping chemical initial and boundary conditions, land use, and anthropogenic area and point source emissions fixed, this modeling system was applied over five summers (June–August) from 1993 to 1997 and five summers from 2053 to 2057. Over these eastern US watersheds, the modeling system estimated 3–14% increases in summertime N deposition as a result of climate change. This increase is primarily due to the direct effects of climate change on atmospheric conditions and chemistry. Wet N deposition is predicted to increase as a result of increased precipitation, while dry N deposition is predicted to increase as higher surface temperatures favor gas-phase nitric acid to particulate nitrate. The simulated increase suggests that additional reductions in N oxides and/or ammonia may be needed to fully realize the anticipated benefits of planned reduction strategies, including the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).
Patterns of Obesogenic Neighborhood Features and Adolescent Weight
Background Few studies have addressed the potential influence of neighborhood characteristics on adolescent obesity risk, and findings have been inconsistent. Purpose Identify patterns among neighborhood food, physical activity, street/transportation, and socioeconomic characteristics and examine their associations with adolescent weight status using three statistical approaches. Methods Anthropometric measures were taken on 2682 adolescents (53% female, mean age=14.5 years) from 20 Minneapolis/St. Paul MN schools in 2009–2010. Neighborhood environmental variables were measured using GIS data and by survey. Gender-stratified regressions related to BMI z-scores and obesity to (1) separate neighborhood variables; (2) composites formed using factor analysis; and (3) clusters identified using spatial latent class analysis in 2012. Results Regressions on separate neighborhood variables found a low percentage of parks/recreation, and low perceived safety were associated with higher BMI z-scores in boys and girls. Factor analysis found five factors: away-from-home food and recreation accessibility, community disadvantage, green space, retail/transit density, and supermarket accessibility. The first two factors were associated with BMI z-score in girls but not in boys. Spatial latent class analysis identified six clusters with complex combinations of both positive and negative environmental influences. In boys, the cluster with highest obesity (29.8%) included low SES, parks/recreation, and safety; high restaurant and convenience store density; and nearby access to gyms, supermarkets, and many transit stops. Conclusions The mix of neighborhood-level barriers and facilitators of weight-related health behaviors leads to difficulties disentangling their associations with adolescent obesity; however, statistical approaches including factor and latent class analysis may provide useful means for addressing this complexity.
Creating a Replicable, Valid Cross-Platform Buffering Technique: The Sausage Network Buffer for Measuring Food and Physical Activity Built Environments
Background Obesity researchers increasingly use geographic information systems to measure exposure and access in neighborhood food and physical activity environments. This paper proposes a network buffering approach, the “sausage” buffer. This method can be consistently and easily replicated across software versions and platforms, avoiding problems with proprietary systems that use different approaches in creating such buffers. Methods In this paper, we describe how the sausage buffering approach was developed to be repeatable across platforms and places. We also examine how the sausage buffer compares with existing alternatives in terms of buffer size and shape, measurements of the food and physical activity environments, and associations between environmental features and health-related behaviors. We test the proposed buffering approach using data from EAT 2010 (Eating and Activity in Teens), a study examining multi-level factors associated with eating, physical activity, and weight status in adolescents (n = 2,724) in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area of Minnesota. Results Results show that the sausage buffer is comparable in area to the classic ArcView 3.3 network buffer particularly for larger buffer sizes. It obtains similar results to other buffering techniques when measuring variables associated with the food and physical activity environments and when measuring the correlations between such variables and outcomes such as physical activity and food purchases. Conclusions Findings from various tests in the current study show that researchers can obtain results using sausage buffers that are similar to results they would obtain by using other buffering techniques. However, unlike proprietary buffering techniques, the sausage buffer approach can be replicated across software programs and versions, allowing more independence of research from specific software.
Estimating the Effects of Increased Urbanization on Surface Meteorology and Ozone Concentrations in the New York City Metropolitan Region
Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg−1, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O3 levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O3 levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.
Commentary: Alternative Cultures in Planning Research--From Extending Scientific Frontiers to Exploring Enduring Questions
As the planning academy has grown and evolved, it has developed different ways of doing planning research. People may (a) work at the scientific frontier, (b) investigate issues of practical relevance, (c) reflect on the implications of practice, or (d) try to answer the enduring questions of planning. These are important differences. Different cultures represent varying ideas about what constitutes an important or significant contribution to the field of planning.
Adolescent Physical Activity and the Built Environment: A Latent Class Analysis Approach
This study used latent class analysis to classify adolescent home neighborhoods (n=344) according to built environment characteristics, and tested how adolescent physical activity, sedentary behavior, and screen time differ by neighborhood type/class. Four distinct neighborhood classes emerged: (1) low-density retail/transit, low walkability index (WI), further from recreation; (2) high-density retail/transit, high WI, closer to recreation; (3) moderate–high-density retail/transit, moderate WI, further from recreation; and (4) moderate–low-density retail/transit, low WI, closer to recreation. We found no difference in adolescent activity by neighborhood class. These results highlight the difficulty of disentangling the potential effects of the built environment on adolescent physical activity.
The Relationship of Area-Level Sociodemographic Characteristics, Household Composition and Individual-Level Socioeconomic Status on Walking Behavior Among Adults
Understanding the contextual factors associated with why adults walk is important for those interested in increasing walking as a mode of transportation and leisure. This paper investigates the relationships between neighborhood-level sociodemographic context, individual level sociodemographic characteristics and walking for leisure and transport. Data from two community-based studies of adults (n = 550) were used to determine the association between the Area Sociodemographic Environment (ASDE), calculated from U.S. Census variables, and individual-level SES as potential correlates of walking behavior. Descriptive statistics, mean comparisons and Pearson’s correlations coefficients were used to assess bivariate relationships. Generalized estimating equations were used to model the relationship between ASDE, as quartiles, and walking behavior. Adjusted models suggest adults engage in more minutes of walking for transportation and less walking for leisure in the most disadvantaged compared to the least disadvantaged neighborhoods but adding individual level demographics and SES eliminated the significant results. However, when models were stratified for free or reduced cost lunch, of those with children who qualified for free or reduced lunch, those who lived in the wealthiest neighborhoods engaged in 10.7 min less of total walking per day compared to those living in the most challenged neighborhoods (p < 0.001). Strategies to increase walking for transportation or leisure need to take account of individual level socioeconomic factors in addition to area-level measures.
Ornement et Subjectivité, de la Tradition Vitruvienne à L’âge Numérique.
On parle souvent aujourd'hui d'un « retour de l'ornement » lié à l'avènement d'une architecture numérique volontiers encline à jouer sur les effets de texture et de couleur. Mais l'ornement auquel il est fait allusion n'a pas grand-chose à voir au premier abord avec celui dont parlait la théorie architecturale classique ou encore la tradition beaux-arts. Tandis que l'ornement traditionnel était localisé, l'ornement numérique règne souvent sur des pans entiers de la façade. L'ornement se parait autrefois d'une dimension symbolique affirmée ; la plupart des théoriciens contemporains de l'ornement reconnaissent qu'il ne possède aucune signification. En fait, le seul point commun entre l'ornement d'hier et celui d'aujourd'hui pourrait bien résider dans les liens qu'entretient la question ornementale avec celle de la subjectivité. Ce sont ces liens que voudrait essayer de clarifier la communication proposée.
Lessons from Mobilization Around Slum Evictions in Tanzania
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Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate
Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4 degrees x 5 degrees resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.
Climate Change, Ambient Ozone, and Health in 50 US Cities
We investigated how climate change could affect ambient ozone concentrations and the subsequent human health impacts. Hourly concentrations were estimated for 50 eastern US cities for five representative summers each in the 1990s and 2050s, reflecting current and projected future climates, respectively. Estimates of future concentrations were based on the IPCC A2 scenario using global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality models. This work does not explore the effects of future changes in anthropogenic emissions, but isolates the impact of altered climate on ozone and health. The cities’ ozone levels are estimated to increase under predicted future climatic conditions, with the largest increases in cities with present-day high pollution. On average across the 50 cities, the summertime daily 1-h maximum increased 4.8 ppb, with the largest increase at 9.6 ppb. The average number of days/summer exceeding the 8-h regulatory standard increased 68%. Elevated ozone levels correspond to approximately a 0.11% to 0.27% increase in daily total mortality. While actual future ozone concentrations depend on climate and other influences such as changes in emissions of anthropogenic precursors, the results presented here indicate that with other factors constant, climate change could detrimentally affect air quality and thereby harm human health.
Links between the Built Environment, Climate and Population Health: Interdisciplinary Environmental Change Research in New York City
Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these challenges, and to train scholars capable of collaborative approaches across the social and biophysical sciences.
Climate Information for Improved Planning and Management of Mega Cities (Needs Perspective)
The majority of the population of the planet (6.6 billion) now live in urban areas, which have distinct impacts upon climate at scales from the local to the global. This urban effect is due to the physical form of the city (its three-dimensional geometry and material composition) and its functions (the day-to-day activity patterns that generate emissions of waste heat and materials into the overlying air). While a substantial body of knowledge on the science of urban climates has been developed over the past fifty years, there is little evidence that this knowledge is incorporated into urban planning and design practice. This paper focuses on this gap by examining the nature of urban climate expertise and the needs of those that make decisions about urban areas. In conclusion it makes recommendations to maintain and enhance urban observations and data; to improve understanding of local, regional and global climate linkages; to develop tools for practical planning; and to disseminate urban climate knowledge and its relevance to urban planning to both practicing meteorologists and urban decision makers.
Do Adolescents Who Live or Go to School Near Fast-Food Restaurants Eat More Frequently from Fast-Food Restaurants?
This population-based study examined whether residential or school neighborhood access to fast food restaurants is related to adolescents' eating frequency of fast food. A classroom-based survey of racially/ethnically diverse adolescents (n=2724) in 20 secondary schools in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota was used to assess eating frequency at five types of fast food restaurants. Black, Hispanic, and Native American adolescents lived near more fast food restaurants than white and Asian adolescents and also ate at fast food restaurants more often. After controlling for individual-level socio-demographics, adolescent males living near high numbers fast food restaurants ate more frequently from these venues compared to their peers.
Urban Heat Island Mitigation Can Improve New York City's Environment: Research on the Impacts of Mitigation Strategies on the Urban Environment
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Long-Term Threats to Canada's James Bay from Hydro-Electrical Development
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Sensitivity of Present and Future Surface Temperatures to Precipitation Characteristics
A model simulation study shows that different diurnal cycles of precipitation are consistent with radically different present and future climate characteristics. In projected future climate scenarios, divergence in the time of day and type of precipitation had very divergent impacts on the radiation balance and consequently on surface temperatures. The relationship between the diurnal cycle of precipitation versus the present and future climate was examined using the GISS-MM5 (Goddard Institute for Space Studies Mesoscale Model 5) regional climate modeling system with 2 alternative moist convection schemes. June-August (JJA) mean surface temperatures of the 1990s, 2050s, and 2080s were simulated over the eastern US on a double nested 108/36 km domain, with the 36 km domain centered over the eastern US. In the 1990s, one model version simulated maxima in (convective) precipitation during the early morning, while the second model simulated the hour of precipitation maxima with considerable spatial variability (in better agreement with observations). In the futuristic climate scenarios, differences in the time of day of precipitation had very important impacts on the radiation balance at the surface. One version gave more precipitation at night and fewer clouds during the day, promoting higher surface temperatures. The alternative version created more precipitation during the day, consistent with diminished absorption of solar radiation at the surface and consequently lower surface temperatures. The results demonstrate the importance of improving cumulus parameterizations in regional mesoscale and global climate models and suggest that such improvements would lead to greater confidence in model projections of climate change.
Simulating Changes in Regional Air Pollution over the Eastern United States Due to Changes in Global and Regional Climate and Emissions
[1] To simulate ozone (O3) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a modeling system consisting of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model, the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale regional climate model (MM5), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model has been applied. Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors are based on the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the scenarios with the highest growth of CO2 among all IPCC scenarios. Simulation results for five summers in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s indicate that summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations increase by 2.7, 4.2, and 5.0 ppb, respectively, as a result of regional climate change alone with respect to five summers in the 1990s. Through additional sensitivity simulations for the five summers in the 2050s the relative impact of changes in regional climate, anthropogenic emissions within the modeling domain, and changed boundary conditions approximating possible changes of global atmospheric composition was investigated. Changed boundary conditions are found to be the largest contributor to changes in predicted summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations (5.0 ppb), followed by the effects of regional climate change (4.2 ppb) and the effects of increased anthropogenic emissions (1.3 ppb). However, when changes in the fourth highest summertime 8-hour O3 concentration are considered, changes in regional climate are the most important contributor to simulated concentration changes (7.6 ppb), followed by the effect of increased anthropogenic emissions (3.9 ppb) and increased boundary conditions (2.8 ppb). Thus, while previous studies have pointed out the potentially important contribution of growing global emissions and intercontinental transport to O3 air quality in the United States for future decades, the results presented here imply that it may be equally important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. national ambient air quality standard that is based on the fourth highest annual daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentration.
Defining Suburbs
There is no consensus as to what exactly constitutes a suburb. This article examines the range of suburban definitions in terms of their structure and the topical issues that they grapple with. Suburbs have been defined according to many different dimensions from location and transportation modes to culture and physical appearance. Given this confusion, one approach is to abandon the term; another is to use it with greater precision. This is more than just an issue of semantics. Rather how people talk and think about suburbs shapes how they can see such areas being developed and redeveloped in the future.
Confronting Urban Displacement: Social Movement Participation and Post-Eviction Resettlement Success in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
This article investigates whether urban social movement participation influences post-eviction resettlement success. Pre- and post-eviction interviews were conducted with sixty-four slum dwellers from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, including members of the Tanzania Federation of the Urban Poor (TFUP). The majority of interviewees reported improved post-eviction housing but adverse employment impacts. TFUP membership was negatively associated with employment outcomes, particularly for property owners. Expecting TFUP to secure housing for them, members delayed finding accommodation. This led to resettlement farther from their former homes and negatively affected employment. Women were especially vulnerable following eviction, with their post-eviction pay falling because of the nature and location of their pre-eviction work.