Mansa College of Education

Items

• Analysis of a simplified calibration procedure for 18 design-phase building energy models
  Accepted Manuscript
• Integrated Design Workflow and a New Tool for Urban Rainwater Management
  Accepted Manuscript
• Parametric Energy Simulation in Early Design: High-Rise Residential Buildings in Urban Contexts
  Accepted Manuscript
• Cycling, the Built Environment, and Health: Results of a Midwestern Study
  Accepted Manuscript
• Alternative forms of the high-technology district: corridors, clumps, cores, campuses, subdivisions, and sites
  Accepted Manuscript
• Global suburbia and the transition century: Physical suburbs in the long term
  Accepted Manuscript
• Paradigm shift: curatorial views on collecting and archiving architectural drawings in an evolving born-digital landscape
  Accepted Manuscript
• Buenos Aires: La Ciudad Frente al Río
  Accepted Manuscript
• Jaqueline Tyrwhitt’s Correspondence Courses: Town Planning in the Trenches
  Jaqueline Tyrwhitt (1905-1983) was the Director of Studies at the School of Planning and Research for Regional Development during the 1940s in Britain, where she founded the town planning Correspondence Courses for architects and others serving with the Allied Forces. With a significant enrollment, the Correspondence Courses were not a single course, but three independent and sequential courses made up of ten to twelve lectures each, with required readings and practical exercises for each lecture. They promoted collaboration among different disciplines and had a clear orientation towards practice. When the war ended a series of intensive post-war completion courses for returning ex-service men were organized, which enabled about ten percent of those enrolled in the Correspondence Courses to qualify in three months as associate members of the Town Planning Institute and enter actively into the profession. Certainly the breadth and depth of the Correspondence Courses cannot be ignored; neither can the conceptual framework within which they were conceived be overlooked. First, they were founded in the belief that it was necessary to impart knowledge of planning to potential collaborators. Second, they were grounded in the conviction that for a much needed rapid training of young field officers there was value in a course in which the theoretical and the practical were closely related. This paper focuses on the Correspondence Courses: it outlines the particular circumstances in which these courses emerged, analyzes their component parts and conceptual structure, and traces their influence in Tyrwhitt’s Harvard period when collaborating in setting up the urban design courses and program at the Graduate School of Design. In terms of the design approach, the “physical shaping of cities” as understood in the 1950s at Harvard was, in the end, not far conceptually from “shaping the environment” as understood in the Correspondence Courses that Jaqueline Tyrwhitt initiated in the 1940s.
• Designing Biologically-inspired Smart Building Systems: Processes and Guidelines
  Version of Record
• Intra-urban vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York City, 1997–2006
  Version of Record
• Moving Beyond ‘Community’ Participation: Perceptions of Renting and the Dynamics of Participation Around Urban Development in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
  This paper employs extensive interviews to examine the ways in which perceptions of renting — on the part of renters, owners and other key actors in the development process — influenced the dynamics of participation around two recent urban development projects in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study responds to concerns that participatory planning too frequently treats communities as homogenous and overlooks barriers to participation faced by marginalized groups, such as renters. The results show that renters were unwilling and often unable to participate due to perceptions, held by themselves and by others, of renter transience and inconsequentiality. These perceptions led to a cycle of non-participation in which policymakers gave renters' needs little attention in plans and renters were disinclined to participate in mobilization. The results suggest that barriers to renter participation could be reduced if their concerns were proactively given more weight in urban development plans.
• Effect of Street Connectivity and Density on Adult BMI: Results from the Twin Cities Walking Study
  Background The prevalence of overweight and obesity in the US population has risen dramatically in recent years. To try to explain this, some studies have examined the association between the built environment and obesity (measured using the body mass index (BMI)). Most of these studies have not sought to identify causal effects, but rather correlations. Methods Data from the Twin Cities Walking Study were used to examine the effect of population density and block size on BMI. Although the Twin Cities Walking Study is a cross-sectional observational study, the matched-sampling design is novel in that it maximises environmental variance while minimising person variance to enhance exchangeability of subjects and more closely mimic an experimental study. Results Contrary to expectations, the hypothesised most walkable neighbourhood (high density, small block stratum) had the greatest mean and median BMI. After adjusting for demographic covariates, physical activity and clustering due to neighbourhood, no conclusive effect of population density by block size on BMI was found (β=−1.024, 95% CI −2.408 to 0.359). Conclusion There is no evidence of an effect of population density by block size on BMI.
• Modeling the Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of PCDD/F to the Great Lakes
  Atmospheric deposition is a significant loading pathway for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (dioxin) to the Great Lakes. An innovative approach using NOAA's HYSPLIT atmospheric fate and transport model was developed to estimate the 1996 dioxin contribution to each lake from each of 5700 point sources and 42 600 area sources in a U.S./Canadian air emissions inventory. These unusually detailed source-receptor modeling results show that deposition to each lake arises from a broad geographical region, with significant contributions from up to 2000 km away. The source categories contributing most significantly to 1996 dioxin deposition appear to be municipal waste incineration, iron sintering, medical waste incineration, and cement kilns burning hazardous waste. Model-predicted air concentrations and deposition fluxes were consistent with ambient measurement data, within the uncertainties in each, but there may be a moderate tendency toward underestimation using midrange emissions estimates. The most likely reason for this tendency appears to be missing or underestimated emissions sources, but in-situ atmospheric formation of octachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) and heptachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (HpCDD) may have also contributed. Despite uncertainties, the findings regarding the relative importance of different sources types and source regions appear to be relatively robust and may be useful in prioritizing pollution prevention efforts.
• Health Impacts from Climate-Change Induced Changes in Ozone Levels in 85 United States Cities
  Introduction: Global warming could impact human health through multiple pathways, including the shifting of ecosystems and associated vector-borne diseases, changes to water resources, and heat-related mortality. As the chemical reactions that form tropospheric ozone are temperature dependent, global warming could raise ambient ozone levels. This could subsequently result in an increase in ozone-associated health effects. Methods: Global warming’s potential effects on ambient ozone concentrations were modeled for 85 cities in the Eastern U.S. for five summers representing current climatic conditions (1993–1997) and five summers representing possible future climatic conditions (2053–2057) using the IPCC A-2 climate scenario and current emissions levels. A linked climate/air quality modeling system developed by the New York Climate and Health Project was used to derive ozone concentrations under climate change. The modeling system included the GISS global climate model (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), MM5 meteorological model (Penn State/United Corporation for Atmospheric Research), CMAQ air quality model (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), and SMOKE emissions processor (MCNC Supercomputing Center). The difference in ozone levels predicted by the model was combined with concentration-response functions from epidemiological studies and current mortality data to estimate the changes in mortality associated with the changes in ozone concentrations. Results: Preliminary results indicate that the climate change scenario would produce higher ambient ozone levels, with an average increase of 2.8 ppb in the daily average ozone (range −0.1 to 6.4 ppb). The daily 1-hour and 8-hour maximums increased for all 85 cities, with an average increase of 4.6 and 4.2 ppb, respectively. Results were not spatially uniform with some cities experiencing larger increases than others. Louisville, Kentucky had the largest elevation in ozone levels with an increase of 9.6 ppb in the daily 1-hour maximum. Exceedances of regulatory standards would also increase under the climate change scenario. For instance, Cincinnati, Ohio is estimated to experience 12 more days exceeding the 8-hour standard under the future climatic conditions. The corresponding health effects will be estimated. For example, elevated ozone concentrations from global warming in the 2050’s is estimated to produce a 0.25% increase (95% confidence interval 0.14, 0.36%) in daily mortality, averaged across the cities, with Louisville experiencing a 0.52% increase (0.30, 0.75%) (based on meta-analysis by Thurston and Ito, 2001). Discussion: This research demonstrates global warming’s potential impact on health through the pathway of elevated ambient ozone levels. This provides evidence for decision.
• Environmental Planning and Urban Health
  Version of Record
• Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region
  Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.
• Reliability Testing of the Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) Method
  Background: The Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) is a questionnaire designed to be economical and straightforward to administer so that it can be used by local governments interested in measuring the amount and purposes of walking and cycling in their communities. In addition, it captures key sociodemographic characteristics of those participating in these activities. Methods: In 2009 and 2010 results from the 4-page mail-out/mail-back PABS were tested for reliability across 2 administrations (test-retest reliability). Two versions—early and refined—were tested separately with 2 independent groups of university students from 4 universities (N = 100 in group 1; N = 87 in group 2). Administrations were 7 to 9 days apart. Results: Almost all survey questions achieved adequate to excellent reliability. Conclusions: Transportation surveys have not typically been tested for reliability making the PABS questionnaire an important new option for improving information collection about travel behavior, particularly walking and cycling.
• Simple, Inexpensive Approach to Sampling for Pedestrian and Bicycle Surveys
  Many transportation planners undertake local surveys for a better understanding of the levels of walking and cycling of residents in their city or town. This paper explores the challenges of designing a robust sampling strategy for such surveys. A review of existing surveys on nonmotorized transportation demonstrated that many existing surveys used less than ideal sampling approaches for communities that were aiming to collect populationwide data on cycling and walking and thereby jeopardized the strength of their conclusions. Either surveys used approaches that were too expensive and complex for most communities to implement or surveys generated data that were not applicable to all residents in a community (i.e., data that were not generalizable to the full population). In response to that sampling problem, this paper presents a new method for collecting generalizable data: the sampling method developed in the Pedestrian and Bicycling Survey (PABS) project. PABS offers a rigorous, yet inexpensive, simple, and well-documented method to conduct surveys. The PABS mail-out-mail-back survey and probabilistic (generalizable) sampling approach can be performed in-house within municipal agencies. With the use of PABS, transportation professionals can obtain higher-quality data about their community as a whole than they would obtain with many of the other existing approaches. PABS is thus a useful complement to other sampling approaches such as intercept surveys (an important way to collect data on the use of specific facilities) or surveys distributed to e-mail lists (a cheap and useful way to collect qualitative data).
• Environmental Equity and Health: Understanding Complexity and Moving Forward
  The authors invoke a population health perspective to assess the distribution of environmental hazards according to race/ethnicity, social class, age, gender, and sexuality and the implications of these hazards for health. The unequal burden of environmental hazards borne by African American, Native American, Latino, and Asian American/Pacific Islander communities and their relationship to well-documented racial/ethnic disparities in health have not been critically examined across all population groups, regions of the United States, and ages. The determinants of existing environmental inequities also require critical research attention. To ensure inclusiveness and fill important gaps, scientific evidence is needed on the health effects of the built environment as well as the natural environment, cities and suburbs as well as rural areas, and indoor as well as outdoor pollutants.
• Simulating Regional-Scale Ozone Climatology over the Eastern United States: Model Evaluation Results
  To study the potential impacts of climate change on air quality and public health over the eastern United States, a coupled global/regional-scale modeling system consisting of the NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere–Ocean model, the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for air quality has been developed. Evaluation results of the modeling system used to simulate climate and ozone air quality over the eastern United States during the five summers of 1993–1997 are presented in this paper. The results indicate that MM5 and CMAQ capture interannual and synoptic-scale variability present in surface temperature and ozone observations in the current climate, while the magnitude of fluctuations on shorter time scales is underestimated. A comparison of observed and predicted spatial patterns of daily maximum ozone concentrations shows best performance in predicting patterns for average and above-average ozone concentrations. The frequency distributions of the duration of extreme heat and ozone events show similar features for both model predictions and observations. Finally, application of a synoptic map-typing procedure reveals that the MM5/CMAQ system succeeded in simulating the average ozone concentrations associated with several frequent pressure patterns, indicating that the effects of synoptic-scale meteorology on ozone concentrations are captured by the modeling system. It is concluded that the GCM/MM5/CMAQ system is a suitable tool for the simulation of summertime surface temperature and ozone air quality conditions over the eastern United States in the present climate.
• Simulated Effects of Climate Change on Summertime Nitrogen Deposition in the Eastern US
  It is anticipated that climate change may impact regional-scale air quality and atmospheric deposition in the coming decades. To simulate the effects of climate change on nitrogen (N) deposition across numerous watersheds in the eastern US, we applied the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS-GCM), Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Keeping chemical initial and boundary conditions, land use, and anthropogenic area and point source emissions fixed, this modeling system was applied over five summers (June–August) from 1993 to 1997 and five summers from 2053 to 2057. Over these eastern US watersheds, the modeling system estimated 3–14% increases in summertime N deposition as a result of climate change. This increase is primarily due to the direct effects of climate change on atmospheric conditions and chemistry. Wet N deposition is predicted to increase as a result of increased precipitation, while dry N deposition is predicted to increase as higher surface temperatures favor gas-phase nitric acid to particulate nitrate. The simulated increase suggests that additional reductions in N oxides and/or ammonia may be needed to fully realize the anticipated benefits of planned reduction strategies, including the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).
• Patterns of Obesogenic Neighborhood Features and Adolescent Weight
  Background Few studies have addressed the potential influence of neighborhood characteristics on adolescent obesity risk, and findings have been inconsistent. Purpose Identify patterns among neighborhood food, physical activity, street/transportation, and socioeconomic characteristics and examine their associations with adolescent weight status using three statistical approaches. Methods Anthropometric measures were taken on 2682 adolescents (53% female, mean age=14.5 years) from 20 Minneapolis/St. Paul MN schools in 2009–2010. Neighborhood environmental variables were measured using GIS data and by survey. Gender-stratified regressions related to BMI z-scores and obesity to (1) separate neighborhood variables; (2) composites formed using factor analysis; and (3) clusters identified using spatial latent class analysis in 2012. Results Regressions on separate neighborhood variables found a low percentage of parks/recreation, and low perceived safety were associated with higher BMI z-scores in boys and girls. Factor analysis found five factors: away-from-home food and recreation accessibility, community disadvantage, green space, retail/transit density, and supermarket accessibility. The first two factors were associated with BMI z-score in girls but not in boys. Spatial latent class analysis identified six clusters with complex combinations of both positive and negative environmental influences. In boys, the cluster with highest obesity (29.8%) included low SES, parks/recreation, and safety; high restaurant and convenience store density; and nearby access to gyms, supermarkets, and many transit stops. Conclusions The mix of neighborhood-level barriers and facilitators of weight-related health behaviors leads to difficulties disentangling their associations with adolescent obesity; however, statistical approaches including factor and latent class analysis may provide useful means for addressing this complexity.
• Creating a Replicable, Valid Cross-Platform Buffering Technique: The Sausage Network Buffer for Measuring Food and Physical Activity Built Environments
  Background Obesity researchers increasingly use geographic information systems to measure exposure and access in neighborhood food and physical activity environments. This paper proposes a network buffering approach, the “sausage” buffer. This method can be consistently and easily replicated across software versions and platforms, avoiding problems with proprietary systems that use different approaches in creating such buffers. Methods In this paper, we describe how the sausage buffering approach was developed to be repeatable across platforms and places. We also examine how the sausage buffer compares with existing alternatives in terms of buffer size and shape, measurements of the food and physical activity environments, and associations between environmental features and health-related behaviors. We test the proposed buffering approach using data from EAT 2010 (Eating and Activity in Teens), a study examining multi-level factors associated with eating, physical activity, and weight status in adolescents (n = 2,724) in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area of Minnesota. Results Results show that the sausage buffer is comparable in area to the classic ArcView 3.3 network buffer particularly for larger buffer sizes. It obtains similar results to other buffering techniques when measuring variables associated with the food and physical activity environments and when measuring the correlations between such variables and outcomes such as physical activity and food purchases. Conclusions Findings from various tests in the current study show that researchers can obtain results using sausage buffers that are similar to results they would obtain by using other buffering techniques. However, unlike proprietary buffering techniques, the sausage buffer approach can be replicated across software programs and versions, allowing more independence of research from specific software.
• Estimating the Effects of Increased Urbanization on Surface Meteorology and Ozone Concentrations in the New York City Metropolitan Region
  Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg−1, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O3 levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O3 levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.